Map update

Because I had been spending so much time on the map itself (along with other school things), it seems I let my data get pretty badly out of date. This version has been corrected to account for the falls of Logar and Wardak provinces, with a few other corrections. Note, though, that it is still not completely up to date.

Look on my works ye mighty and despair!

(Click for full size image.)

At long last, Tʜᴇ Mᴀᴘ is complete.

Due to the narrow width of Blogger's columns, I'm almost certainly going to have to migrate to WordPress.

Karzai urges Afghan war timeline

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has called for a timetable for ending the war against the Taleban in his country.

Mr Karzai made the call in a speech to a visiting UN Security Council team.

He said if Afghans had "no light at the end of the tunnel" they had the right to pursue other options, such as peace negotiations with the Taleban.

Mr Karzai also demanded an end to arrests of Afghans "in their homes, in the roads" by international forces, saying it was the job of Afghan police.

[snip]

Mr Karzai said there were two options.

First would be to set a timeline, saying that what had not been achieved in the past seven years would be achieved in the next "four years, five years or another seven years".

But he added: "If we cannot give a light at the end of the tunnel to the Afghan people, [do] the Afghan people have a right to ask for negotiation for peace? [Do] the Afghan people have a right to seek other avenues?"

Mr Karzai said he would continue to fight al-Qaeda and Taleban members "who are ideologically against the rest of the world".

However, he said Taleban members who were "part of the Afghan community" could be brought back to serve Afghanistan.

[More]


Comment:

That last part is the crux of the matter. Karzai has been (rightly) calling for negotiation with the reconcilables for quite some time now — indeed, he has actually engaged in some negotiation with the mediation of King Abdullah. His borrowing of the words "timeline" and "withdrawal" from Iraq is blatant electioneering, and nothing more.

The fact that he felt it would be beneficial to say it, however, is emblematic of a real problem, which is that we are running out of time. The good will of the Afghan people cannot last forever, and it is beginning to wear thin.

More propaganda

"Afghan mayor turns Taliban leader," announces Al Jazeera's top headline. But the man in question had not been mayor since the Taliban came to power, and had defected well over a year ago after being fired from his job as head of Herat's Department of Public Works. This story is not news by any stretch of the imagination, yet Al Jazeera considered it to be more important than the current financial Armageddon the planet is facing. I am apalled at this recent spate of pro-Taliban articles, and am very seriously considering finding somewhere else to get my news.

In other news, Hekmatyar has indicated that he would not be averse to switching sides (something he has a great deal of experience with), and the TTP is saying "uncle." I doubt that anything will come of the first (though I wouldn't put it past him), but it will be interesting to see what, if anything, will come of the second, especially inasmuch as the tribes are concerned.

We gain one, we lose one.

There's a lot to talk about today, so I'm going to depart from my usual format.

According to Al Jazeera:

In a second battle in Helmand province, Afghan and international troops retook the Nad Ali district centre - which had been held by fighters - during a three-day fight, Ahmadi said.

That battle, which also involved airstrikes, ended on Saturday and resulted in the death of 40 Taliban fighters, officials said.

Afghan police and soldiers were now in control of the district centre.

Nato said its aircraft bombed fighters after they were seen gathering for a major attack, killing "multiple enemy forces".

"If the fighters planned a spectacular attack prior to the winter, this was a spectacular failure," Richard Blanchette, an Isaf spokesman, said.

Although I was somewhat disappointed to learn that there had been a district that I had not known was held by the Taliban, this is of course good news, as is the news, also reported in the article, that NATO had repulsed a major attack on Lashkar Gah. However, AJ did not mention this somewhat less cheerful development, which I found out about via Quqnoos:

Taliban claim to have forced NATO-led troops from a remote district

THE NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has withdrawn from a district in the north-eastern province of Nuristan, the international force said.

ISAF said it retreated from its forward operating base in the Kamdish district on Friday following advice from Afghanistan’s Defence Ministry.

But the Taliban claimed that it forced ISAF troops in the district to retreat after engaging them in fierce fighting in the district, one of the country’s most insecure.

The situation in Nuristan has been growing increasingly worrying. According to my current map prototype, the Taliban currently controls three of its eight districts, as well as the Dara-ye Pech District just across the border in Kunar Province, and a fourth district, Bargomatal, was attacked by Tehrik-i-Taliban-i-Pakistan back in July. I still have been unable to determine the outcome of that battle, but am inclined to think that, even if the TTP did manage to take it, which I don't think they did, their forces have since been withdrawn to fight the Pakistani security forces in Bajaur, which would leave the district only nominally in the Taliban's hands, just as so much of the rest of the province is only nominally in the hands of NATO and the central government. I have seen reports that some of the forces currently fighting in Bajaur had previously been fighting in Afghanistan, which lends some credence to this theory.

Nuristan, for those of you who are not familiar with it (i.e. pretty much all of you), is one of the most isolated inhabited regions on the face of the Earth. Its terrain is nearly impassable, and it is so out of the way that Islam didn't reach it until the end of the 19th century. Before then it was known as Kafiristan (land of the unbelievers) and its inhabitants as the Red Kafirs; their cousins, the Black Kafirs, or Kalasha, live on the Pakistani side of the Durand line and still practice their age-old pagan religion. The Nuristanis speak languages that are unusual even for Mianistan; while most languages in the region are either Iranian (e.g. Pashto, Wakhi, Yidgha) or Indo-Aryan (e.g. Khowar, Kalasha, Torwali) (although this "Dardic" sub-group of the Indo-Aryan branch is pretty weird), the Nuristani languages form a group all of their own.

There is, however, yet another major development regarding Afghanistan in the news today. Quqnoos reports:

US wants to reduce dependence on government by arming militias

THE UNITED States plans to arm tribal militias against the Taliban, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said at a NATO summit in Hungary.

As part of a plan to create greater co-operation on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistani border, the US wants to train tribal militias in an attempt to reduce its dependence on the central government in Kabul.

Parliament members had already suggested arming the tribes, but the idea was not given any currency at the time.

This is a superb idea. Working with the tribes worked in Iraq, is working in Pakistan, and, unlike McCain's bizarre idea to "clear and hold" some of the most impassible terrain on Earth, it would also work in Afghanistan. In case you haven't noticed, I am strongly pro-tribe, not only because of my own tribal identity (Stewart of Bote FTW!), but also simply because it works. Indeed, in regions such as Mianistan I would venture to say that it is the only strategy that will work. My friend Woke at News Hounds has often said that it is impossible for a conventional army to defeat a popular insurgency. Although it is possible to do it if you brutally punish the civilian population, as Genghis Khan did, that's not really an option if you're the good guys, so it's true so far as we are concerned. This means that if you are faced with an insurgency, the only way that you can win is if it stops being popular. The psychopathic, woman-oppressing, elder-beheading Taliban are already helping us out on this one. However, their antisocial ways can be counteracted by the collateral damage we often inflict when we fight them directly. This means that there needs to be a popular insurgency against the unpopular one. We can then support the locals rather than killing them. And in the tribal reality of Mianistan, supporting the locals means supporting the tribes.

A look at the Afghan frontier

This clip gave me a much better understanding of why the region has been so hard to control.

Arrests over Afghan civilian deaths

Afghan police have arrested three men alleged to have provided "wrong information"
which led to the deaths of scores of civilians in a US air raid.

More than 90 people, mostly women and children, were killed in the village of Azizabad in western Herat's Shindand district on August 22, according to the Afghan government.

Police began an investigation into the incident on September 4 after villagers said US-led forces in Afghanistan had been fed false information about the presence of Taliban members in Azizabad following a tribal dispute, the interior ministry said.

A statement said: "After examining all the police reports and direct claims made by people in the area, three suspects who are said to be key people in giving false information regarding the bombardment of Azizabad, have been arrested in a police operation."

The three were on a list of people provided to Hamid Karzai, the president, by the villagers. Karzai visited relatives of the victims earlier this month and pledged to punish those responsible.

Karzai has already sacked two senior army commanders over the incident.

Tribal dispute

Locals told Al Jazeera that the air raid hit a memorial service at a compound belonging to Reza Khan, a tribal leader who had been in dispute with Nader Tawakal, another local leader.

"We were holding a prayer ceremony when the bombs started to fall ... it was heavy bombardment. The whole village was on fire and about 90 were killed," Abdul Rasheed, the brother of one of the dead, said.

Villagers have denied that the gathering was a meeting of the Taliban, which has been fighting Afghan and international forces since being forced from power in 2001. They said that Khan, who died in the raid, was a businessman with security contracts at a nearby US base.

"Nader gave the US special forces wrong information," Gullah Ahmed, one villager, said.

"But instead of surrounding the village they just started bombing."

Nader was not among those arrested on Friday.

The US military maintains that between 30 and 35 Taliban fighters were killed, but has agreed to reopen the investigation after a mobile phone video emerged showing bodies of people said to have been killed in the attack.

It says the original investigation found that a senior Taliban commander was among the dead in the air raid, which was called in after Afghan army US-led ground forces came under intense fire.

Civilian casualties

One resident of Azizabad said that US forces raided his house after the bombing and demanded to be shown the bodies of the dead Taliban fighters.

"I said there were no Taliban here," he told Al Jazeera. "I saw their facial expressions when they realised that civilians had been killed."

More than 500 civilians have been killed during military operations by foreign and Afghan forces so far this year, according to the Afghan government and some aid groups.

Daoud Sultanzoy, an Afghan MP, said that such incidents were destroying people's faith in the Afghan government and international forces in the country.

"The weak Afghan government and weak leadership is trying to take advantage of this and trying to deflect attention from their own problems that are the root cause of these kind of things," he told Al Jazeera.

"Lack of co-ordination of our intelligence, lack of co-ordination of our security forces and lack of co-ordination of our leadership have led to these kind of problems ... if we are not careful we will cross a threshold and alienate the civilian population."

Via Al Jazeera.

Comment:

This is turning out to be quite the fiasco. I had initially not covered it because the differences between the numbers provided by the military and those provided by the locals had led me to believe that it was primarily, though not necessarily entirely, an attempt by Taliban sympathizers at propagandizing. It turns out, though, that the military's figures were based on an embedded FOX news reporter, who turned out to be, almost unbelievably, Oliver North.

Al Jazeera has suggested elsewhere that Bush is apparently ratcheting up efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan in hopes of capturing Osama bin Laden before his term expires. I hope to God that this is not true. Everything that Bush has ever tried to do has failed. If he attempts to, as an American commander put it, "kill [his] way to victory," we might as well just start paying bin Laden a pension right now.

Afghan family killed in house raid

A family of four, including two children, have been killed in an overnight raid by international troops, a police official and witnesses said.

Residents in Hud Kheil in the east of the capital said one of the two children was eight months old and grenades killed the family members during a joint Afghan-US special forces operation.

US special forces said they were not involved. Nato's International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) said they were investigating media reports.

The deaths are likely to further strain relations between Afghanistan and the US and other foreign forces in the country, who have been accused of using excessive force in civilian areas.

Hundreds of people blocked a road in Kabul, protesting against the raid.

"It was past one o'clock when the troops came and surrounded our houses," said Sulaiman, one resident.

"They threw hand grenades in one house and killed three family members," he said.

Some locals told Al Jazeera there was an exchange of fire, and that the family may have been caught in the crossfire.

Damaged building

"Are these two children Al Qaeda?" an angry resident asked, as the bodies were taken for burial.

"We don't expect anything from the government because we don't have a government," Sulaiman said.

Several US and Nato military bases are located in the area. Three people were taken away by the troops, residents said.

The operation came a day after Nato said it received information from a "reliable source" that pro-Taliban fighters may be planning to falsely claim that international forces killed up to 70 civilians in southern Afghanistan.

The operation also comes Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president, sacked an Afghan army general and a major after more than 100 civilians were reported to have been killed in an attack by US-led coalition forces.

Eyewitnesses and local people said more than 100 civilians, many of them women and children, were killed in the attack.

US officials, who said only three civilians were killed along with 25 Taliban fighters, have agreed to take part in a joint investigation with Afghanistan into the attacks.

Ground and air

Afghanistan's cabinet demanded last week a change in the rules governing international troops in the country, after the claims that more than 100 Afghans died in air attacks.

Despite Monday's deaths being caused by a ground operation, Daoud Sultanzoy, an Afghan MP, told Al Jazeera last week that it was air raids by Nato and US-led troops in villages and civilian areas that were causing the most damage.

The cabinet said that a review should focus on the "authorities and responsibilities" of troops and demand an end to air attacks in civilian areas, illegal detentions and unilateral houe searches.

"The authorities and responsibilities of the international forces in Afghanistan must be regulated through a "status of force agreement" consistent with both international and Afghan laws.

"Air strikes on civilian targets, unco-ordinated house searches and illegal detention of Afghan civilians must be stopped," a government statement said.

"With either good or bad intelligence, the most important lesson to learn from this is that we need to rely more on ground troops.

"Since Nato and the coalition don't have these troops, the reliance on air support is greater.

"If [Nato and the US] can increase their ground operations it would probably alleviate some of these problems."

The United Nations says that 255 of the almost 700 civilian deaths in fighting in Afghanistan this year have been caused by Afghan and international troops.

Via Al Jazeera.


Comment:

Fun fact: As of July, there were 162,000 US troops in Iraq.¹

Tʜᴇ Mᴀᴘ: Rough Draft

Finally.

This is a provisional map of who controls which districts in Afghanistan, as of 26 July 2008. The blue icons indicate control by NATO, the United States, and/or the central Afghan government. In order to avoid clutter (and crashing Google Earth), not all of these districts are shown; those that are shown are typically provincial capitals (especially those with Provincial Reconstruction Teams) or districts that the Taliban had controlled in the past. The black icons indicate districts and (and tribal agencies) held by the either the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan itself or the closely related Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan. This set is to the best of my knowledge complete, but bear in mind that this map is a rough draft. The green icons indicate districts and agencies that are held by Pakistan; obviously most such districts are not marked. The red icons indicate districts and agencies that are contested.

For the main image page on Flickr, click here.

Pakistani Taliban swarm into remote district

14 July 2008

Clashes come days after official says Nuristan may fall into rebel hands

A GROUP of Pakistani Taliban have crossed over the Afghan border and attacked a remote district in the north-eastern province of Nuristan, the Interior Ministry said.

The fighting, which began on Saturday, came days after the head of the provincial council warned that the entire province could fall into Taliban hands unless the government sent troops to stave off the Taliban assault in the Baga Matal district.

Five militants were killed and seven injured in the heavy fighting between police and Pakistani Taliban, the ministry said.

Extra troops have been sent into the district after several days of clashes, which saw residents take up arms against the rebels.

One of Nuristan’s Members of Parliament said the recent clashes had called into question the government’s ability to make swift, decisive decisions.

In the neighbouring province of Kunar, rebels killed nine US soldiers in one of the bloodiest attacks suffered by American troops since the US-led invasion of 2001.

Via Quqnoos.


Comment:

This means that the Taliban now potentially controls at least three of Nuristan's eight districts, as well as the district of Pech in neighboring Kunar province (which has apparently still not been retaken). It is good that the Nuristanis are (or at least have been) resisting, but still, this is very, very bad.

Ajristan districit of Ghazni retaken by government

24 July 2008

The district in Ghazni which fell to Taliban recently is recaptured by Afghan government forces

Authorities in Ghazni province says that Ajristan district has been recaptured by Afghan forces.

The spokesman for Ghazni governor said that this district was taken on Wednesday during a joint Afghan and coalition operation and is once again under the control of the government.

According to the spokesman, 15 Taliban were killed and about 20 were wounded in the operation.

The Taliban captured Ajristan district 3 days ago. Ajristan is one of Ghazni’s remotest districts which neighbours Daykundi province.

Via Quqnoos.


Comment:

Specifically, it neighbors Gizab district, which is one of the Taliban's major strongholds.

Taliban fighters 'killed' in battle

Afghan army troops killed at least 34 Taliban fighters in a firefight after an army convoy was ambushed in the south of the country, a defence ministry spokesman said.

According to Zahir Azimi, the clash erupted after "enemy elements" attacked Afghan forces in Zabul province on the main highway between the capital Kabul and the southern city of Kandahar on Thursday. "A fierce battle started and the enemy were caught between the Afghan army on both sides," Azimi said.

"At least 34 enemy dead bodies are at the battlefield, but we believe there are many more killed." More Taliban fighters have reportedly been killed in a district that the anti-government group captured three days ago, a defence ministry spokesman said.

Afghan soldiers backed by Nato ground and air support launched an offensive in the remote Ajristan district of central Afghanistan's Ghazni province, killing at least 15 fighters, during an operation to retake control of the area, an Afghan official said on Thursday.

Ismail Jahangir, a government spokesman, said: "At least 15 Taliban have been killed and several others are wounded since [Wednesday]." The operation continued for a second day on Thursday, with the troops able to recapture the district headquarters compound but still fighting for wider control, Jahangir, a government spokesman said. The Nato-led International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) said: "The joint operations began with a co-ordinated air strike on Taliban fighters, inside Ajiristan. Several insurgents have been killed and wounded."

Remote districts

Ajiristan was previously captured by the Taliban in October 2007, and was retaken the following day when at least 300 security forces moved into the district centre.

The Taliban have captured several mainly remote districts in the past but have not been able to retain hold of them for long, although there are a handful in the southern Helmand province, that security forces admit are in rebel control.

The fighting in Afghanistan meanwhile continued to take its toll on international forces. In the latest loss, a British soldier was killed in southern Afghanistan, the UK defence ministry said on Wednesday.

A ministry spokesman said no further details were immediately available.

Via Al Jazeera.


Comment:

Al Jazeera does not appear to have even mentioned this district's fall. This is what I'm talking about when I call Afghanistan "the forgotten war".

As for AJ's statements about where the Taliban holds districts, it is true that Helmand has more than any other province, but at least half of the Taliban's districts are nonetheless in other parts of the country. I hope to have at least a rough draft of the map I've been working on available later today.

US Troops Leave Base Where 9 Died

KABUL, Afghanistan - U.S. and Afghan troops have abandoned a remote outpost in eastern Afghanistan where militants killed nine American Soldiers this week, officials said July 16.

Compounding the military setback, insurgents quickly seized the village of Wanat in Nuristan province after driving out the handful of police left behind to defend government offices, Afghan officials said.

Some 50 officers were headed to the area to try to regain control, said Ghoolam Farouq, a senior provincial police official.

The July 13 attack by some 200 militants armed with machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars was the deadliest for the U.S. military in Afghanistan in three years. Rebels fought their way into the newly established base, wounding another 15 Americans and suffering heavy casualties of their own, before the defenders and warplanes could drive them back.

The assault underlined how Islamic militants appear to be gaining strength nearly eight years after the ouster of the Taliban, and the difficulties facing foreign and Afghan forces trying to defeat them.

NATO said the post, which lies amid precipitous mountains close to the Pakistan border, had been vacated, but insisted that international and Afghan troops will "retain a strong presence in that area with patrolling and other means."

"We are committed, now more than ever, to establishing a secure environment that will allow even greater opportunities for development and a stronger Afghan governmental influence," NATO spokesman Capt. Mike Finney said.

Omar Sami, spokesman for the Nuristan provincial governor, said American and Afghan soldiers quit the base on July 15. He said they took the district mayor with them.

Sami said U.S. troops armed local police with more than 20 guns before they left, but that the officers had fled the village and crossed into neighboring Kunar province when 100 militants moved into Wanat.

Via Military.com, H/T Robrob.

Comment:

Great. Another black pin on the map. (I've been using blue and black placemarks in Google Earth to try to determine who controls what.)

I sure hope this is temporary.

Update:

Although Wanat is just a stone's throw from Nuristan, it's actually located in the Pech district of Kunar province (though it could be culturally Nuristani). My understanding is that not only Wanat, but also Dara-i-Pech (the district center) have fallen. Some sources indicate that reinforcements are en route to retake the district, or even that they already have retaken it, but there aren't enough for me to consider them credible (at least not yet). Also, it seems that this base was still under construction when the Taliban attacked.

Government's writ extended to 95% of Afghanistan: Saleh

Ahmad Khalid Moeed - Mar 3, 2008 - 12:03

KABUL (PAN): The intelligence department head considered eight districts in various provinces paralyzed and said that Taliban were moving in those districts in group.

Amrullah Saleh, told a press conference on Monday that Khak-i-Afghan district of Zabul province, Gizab of Daikundi, Disho, Khanshin, Bughran, and Washer of Helmand, Manawal and Dawaba of Nuristan province were the districts where governance is paralyzed.

He added that no group had captivity on these districts, but Taliban can freely move there.

Amrullah also considered the recent remarks of CIA head as base less.

Michaal Mekonil, head of CIA, recently told the US senate that Karzai government has control only on 30 per cent of the country.

He added that 10 per cent was under control of Taliban and 60 per cent was controlled by local power holders and tribal elders.

However Amrullah said that 95 per cent of land was under control of Afghan government and only 2 per cent population was not controlled by Afghan government.

Amrullah reminded that 18 per cent of people live in areas where the security is not safe, but the government controls it.

According to Amrullah, during last 12 months the districts of Mai nashin and Ghorak of Kandahar, Jani khil and Mangal of Paktia, Giro, Rashidan and Arjistan of Ghazni, Gomal, Yahya khil, Dila of Paktika, Bala murghab of Badghis, Kajran of Daikundi were among the districts which were recaptured by government and currently administrations are active in these districts.

He said seven people involved in Baghlan bloody suicide attack has been identified and five of those have been arrested.

On November 7, 2007 a blast killed over 90 school children including six MPs.

Amrullah said Mula Salih Muhammad, an official of Taliban intelligence and Mir Hairder master minded Baghlan attack, but they have not been arrested yet.

He informed reporters that Musa Kalim and Dil Muhammad who were involved in Kandahar recent suicide attack have been arrested.

He said the two people had prepared explosive vests and helped suicide attackers to cross border from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

Amrullah said all suicide attacks are conducted by Muhammad Arif in Kandahar city

He said the recent suicide attacks launched in Kandahar which were aimed to kill Commander Abdul Hakim, one of the government supporters in Kandahar province was also conducted by Muhammad Arif.

Amrullah added that Qahir who kept the suicide attacker of Kabul Serena at his house was also arrested.

Amrullah Salih, said according to a survey during last five month 27 abductions have taken place in Kabul and 101 in the country

The survey showed that most abductions were in Farah, Helmand and Herat provinces and were on criminal basis.

Via Pajhwok.

Comment:

Saleh is not exactly an unbiased observer, but this is still the most detailed account of who controls what in Afghanistan I've come across.

Taliban targeted near Kandahar

At least two Afghan soldiers and about 20 Taliban fighters have been killed after Afghan and Nato forces launched an operation near the southern city of Kandahar.

The fighting in Arghandab province on Wednesday came after Taliban fighters staged a raid on Kandahar jail freeing hundreds of prisoners and took control of a number of villages.

"A group of enemies of the people was targeted by Nato air force in Ta-been village in Arghandab [district]," an Afghan defence ministry statement said. "Based on information received, 20 local and foreign terrorists were killed."

Another statement said two Afghan soldiers were "martyred".

Meanwhile, four Nato soldiers died and two were wounded when a roadside bomb exploded in Helmand province.

The British defence ministry confirmed the deaths on Wednesday, saying that one of those who died was a female soldier.

She would be the first British female soldier to die in Afghanistan.

Roads blocked

The Arghandab operation began at 8am local time [0300 GMT], the deffence ministry said.
Mark Laity, a Nato spokesman in Kabul, told Al Jazeera: "The operation is pretty much on track.

"There have been a number of engagements with the insurgents, but they have been minor rather than major battles. "We have killed some insurgents but we have not yet suffered any Isaf [the International Security Assistance Force] casualties." The number of troops involved in the operation is "substantial", he said. "The bulk of the troops are from the Afghan army. They are leading that operation and we are backing them," said Laity. Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra, reporting from Kandahar, said that the main road leading to Arghandab was blocked and that more army reinforcements were heading towards the district, including tanks, armoured vehicles and soldiers. "The threat from the Taliban in Arghandab is being taken very seriously by the Afghan army and the coalition forces," he said. "They are concerned that with the military operation going on, the Taliban could retaliate using suicide bombers and attack inside [the city of] Kandahar."

'Made progress'

Zemarai Bashari, spokesman for Afghanistan's interior ministry, said "the operation is going very well". "Afghan security forces have made progress … the initial reports are stating that 16 enemies have been killed and around four others are injured." He said that Afghan and Nato troops were carrying out the operation as a joint force with neither leading the other. "This is a joint operation … everyone is playing their role and we are seeing very good co-ordination and implementation of this operation," Bashari said. However, Yousuf Ahmadi, a Taliban spokesman, denied that his group's fighters had been dislodged by the Afghan-Nato offensive. "The fighting started today in the morning but they have not been able to take a metre of the land under our control. We do not intend to leave Arghandab at all," he said. "We will use Arghandab for specific attacks with motors and cannons on targets in Kandahar city. We have also planned a suicide attack which will be carried out in Kandahar."

'No resistance'

Afghan and soldiers from the multinational force soldiers sealed off the Arghandab district on Tuesday, after the Taliban claimed its fighters had taken control of 10 villages. The Taliban said it met no resistance as it took control of the villages. Ahelbarra said on Tuesday that hundreds of Taliban fighters had taken up positions in the area.

It was unclear if the group was just trying to make a statement as it did late last year when it captured the same area for just a few days before retreating under heavy bombardment, or if it would try to take back control of large swaths of the country.

As soon as news of the Taliban takeover circulated, residents fled their villages, some of them with cattle and all their belongings. The Taliban encouraged them to leave.

"We left the area to protect ourselves from the bombing and the risks of a military confrontation. There are many Taliban fighters - some told us they are more than 800," one resident said. Gholam Razeq, the district chief of Arghandab, said "the enemy wants to create insecurity in Arghandab which was the most secure area". Haji Ikramullah Khan, a tribal leader from the region, cautioned that the Taliban fighters could use the cover of the district's grape and pomegranate orchards to mount an attack on Kandahar itself. "All of Arghandab is made of orchards. The fighters can easily hide and easily fight," he said. "It is quite close to Kandahar. During the Russian war, the Russians didn't even occupy Arghandab, because when they fought here they suffered big casualties."

Via Al Jazeera.


Comment:

The location of the village mentioned, together with the mention of closing off "the main road leading to Arghandab", effectively confirm my suspicions that the Taliban struck from Khakrez district, which borders Arghandab to the northwest. The two districts are divided by a small mountainous region traversed by a single major road, the terminus of which is in the vicinity of Ta-Been. This indicates that Khakrez is held by the Taliban. I suspect Ghorak district is (or was) as well, as that would result in a continuous swath of Taliban or formerly Taliban territory stretching from Khakrez to Sangin and Musa Qala (which were retaken during Operation Achilles).

Kandahar braces for Taliban battle

Afghan and Nato forces are redeploying troops around the southern city of Kandahar in preparation for a possible large-scale battle with the Taliban. The soldiers have sealed off the Arghandab district just 30km north of Kandahar where the Taliban claims around 500 of its fighters are now in control of 10 villages.

Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra, reporting from Kandahar, said the authorities had imposed a curfew and soldiers were building defensive lines, taking up positions on rooftops and patrolling just about everywhere as they await reinforcements for a counterattack on the areas taken by the Taliban.

Mark Laity, a Nato spokesman, said Nato and Afghan troops were being redeployed to the region to "meet any potential threats".

The Taliban offensive comes just few days after a suicide attack on Kandahar's main jail freed more than 1,000 prisoners. "It's fair to say that the jailbreak has put a lot of people [fighters] into circulation who were not there before, and so obviously you're going to respond to that potential threat," Laity said.

'Message'

And with hundreds of its fighters controlling a large area north of Kandahar, the Taliban seems to be sending a message that seven years after being toppled, it is still a major force in Afghanistan.

The Taliban said it met no resistance as it took control of the villages and announced plans to march towards Kandahar city. Our correspondent said that hundreds of Taliban fighters had taken up positions in the area and taken over villages in a well organised manner.
But it was unclear if the group was just trying to make a statement as it did late last year when it captured the same area for just a few days before retreating under heavy bombardment by international forces, or if it would try to take back control of large swaths of the country.

Villagers flee

Local residents were paying a heavy price for the instability. Mohammad Farooq, a government official in Arghandab, said on Monday that around 500 Taliban fighters moved into the area and took over the villages. As soon as news of the Taliban takeover circulated, residents in Arghandab fled their villages, some of them with cattle and all their belongings.

The Taliban also told residents to leave. "We left the area to protect ourselves from the bombing and the risks of a military confrontation. There are many Taliban fighters some told us they are more than eight hundred," one resident said. Gholam Razeq, the district chief of Arghandab, said "the enemy wants to create insecurity in Arghandab which was the most secure area". But while he said the Taliban takeover of the whole area was just a matter of time, he also vowed that "as soon as we get reinforcements we will attack". However, Haji Ikramullah Khan, a tribal leader from the region, warned that the fighters could use the cover of the district's grape and pomegranate orchards to mount an attack on Kandahar itself. "All of Arghandab is made of orchards. The fighters can easily hide and easily fight," he said. "It is quite close to Kandahar. During the Russian war, the Russians didn't even occupy Arghandab, because when they fought here they suffered big casualties."

Via Al Jazeera.


Comment:

According to my topographical maps, Arghandab contains approximately 50 settlements, of which the Taliban has captured only ten. If my memory serves me correctly, the last time they captured this district, they took the whole thing (though I may be wrong). This leads me to suspect that this is just a show of force on their part, though NATO seems to be taking the threat fairly seriously.

Taliban seize Afghan villages

Taliban fighters have taken control of 10 villages in the Arghandab district of Kandahar province in Afghanistan, and have said they plan to march towards Kandahar city.

Mohammad Farooq, a government official in Arghandab, said on Monday that around 500 Taliban fighters moved into the area and took over the villages.

Arghandab lies 30km north of Kandahar city. Haji Ikramullah Khan, a tribal leader from the region warned that the fighters could use the cover of the district's grape and pomegranate orchards to mount an attack on Kandahar itself.

Launching pad

"All of Arghandab is made of orchards. The fighters can easily hide and easily fight," he said. "It is quite close to Kandahar. During the Russian war, the Russians didn't even occupy Arghandab, because when they fought here they suffered big casualties."

The Taliban offensive follows the escape of more than 1000 Taliban and other prisoners in a suicide attack on the main jail in the southern city of Kandahar on Friday night, which also left many prison guards dead.

Mark Laity, a Nato spokesman, said that Nato and Afghan military officials were redeploying troops to the region to "meet any potential threats".

"It's fair to say that the jailbreak has put a lot of people [fighters] into circulation who were not there before, and so obviously you're going to respond to that potential threat," he said.

Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra, reporting from Kandahar, said that hundreds of Taliban fighters are taking up positions in the area and taking over nearby villages.

"Ultimately, it is local residents who are paying a heavy price for this increasing instability," he said.

"The Taliban are showing impressive capability in manoeuvring in and around the area."

[More]

Talks on US-Iraq pact at 'dead end'

Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi prime minister, says talks with the US on a new long-term security pact have reached a "dead end". The US and Iraq are negotiating a new agreement to provide a legal basis for US troops to stay in Iraq after December 31, when their UN mandate expires.

They are also negotiating a long-term strategic framework agreement on political, diplomatic, economic, security and cultural ties.

"We have reached a dead end, because when we started the talks, we found that the US demands hugely infringe on the sovereignty of Iraq, and this we can never accept," al-Maliki said during a visit to Jordan on Friday.

[More]


Comment:

Thank God. If Bush had successfully been able to push this through, it would have been a catastrophe. Not only would it have tied up the troops that are so badly needed in Afghanistan, but it would have eliminated any credibility that the Iraqi government may have had, almost certainly throwing the country into turmoil as the current fragile political coalition disintegrates. This would have made it immensely more difficult for President Obama to redeploy.

Speaking of Afghanistan, I am making progress on figuring out which districts are currently held by the Taliban. Most of the country is actually much quieter than I had realized, with almost all of the fighting being confined to a relatively small area.

Pakistan blames US for border raid

Pakistan has blamed US-led forces in Afghanistan for an "unprovoked and cowardly" air raid near the border that killed at least 11 Pakistani soldiers.

However, the US military on Wednesday has said that the air and artillery assault was aimed at Taliban fighters and had been co-ordinated with Islamabad.

"...Coalition forces informed the Pakistan Army that they were being engaged by anti-Afghan forces," the US military said in a statement.

It said the operation "had been previously co-ordinated with Pakistan".

The alleged attack came after Pakistani paramilitary troops in the Mohmand tribal area clashed with Afghan forces in an area fought over by the two countries, Pakistani officials said. "The spokesman condemned this completely unprovoked and cowardly act on the FC [Frontier Corps] post and regretted the loss of precious lives of our soldiers," a Pakistani military statement said on Wednesday. "A strong protest has been launched by the Pakistan army and we reserve the right to protect our citizens and soldiers against aggression.

"The incident had hit at the very basis of co-operation and sacrifice with which Pakistani soldiers are supporting the coalition in the war against terror," the statement said. The Afghan military has not yet responded to the allegations.

Afghan operation

The Afghan army, backed by the US military, is understood to have entered the area in an attempt to secure the release of seven soldiers held by the Taliban in Pakistan. But Pakistani officials said Afghan forces tried to capture parts of the Soran Dara area, which borders the Afghan province of Nangarhar and which Pakistan claims is its own territory. "There is confusion over what happened," Kamal Hyder, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Islamabad, said. "Officials have confirmed that Pakistani troops were killed … in an area where Americans and Afghans were conducting joint operations."

Another Al Jazeera correspondent based in Islamabad said that military sources had told him that a US spy plane was used in the air raid.

'Spy plane' spotted

Damagh Khan Mohmand, a local tribesman who witnessed the outbreak of fighting late on Tuesday, said that the clashes lasted for four hours. He said that Afghan and foreign forces traded fire with both Pakistani tribesmen and troops.Two aircraft then bombed several locations, hitting two Frontier Corps posts, Khan Mohmand said.

Hyder said the incident is not the first attack on a Pakistani military post. "A little over a month ago there was an attack at a post not far from Chopara checkpoint," he said. "Al Jazeera sources in Kabul say that the Nato-led coalition is investigating. The coalition has not released any official statements; nor has the Pakistani military.

"There has been anger from the tribal groups, who have an armed group. They are now saying they will retaliate across the border for the strike."

Pakistan's foreign office issued a statement condemning the "senseless use of air power" urging the US-led international force to hand over the results of its investigation into the incident.

"The attack also tends to undermine the very basis of our co-operation with the coalition forces and warrants a serious rethink on their part of the consequences that could ensue from such rash acts," it said. Border dispute A series of missile attacks have been attributed to US-led forces in Afghanistan in recent months. More than a dozen people were killed in one such incident in the tribal region of Bajaur in May. There have been several disputes over the 2,500km Pakistan-Afghanistan border recently.

Both countries, whose governments are both allies of the US in its so-called "war on terror", have also argued over how to tackle fighters loyal to the Taliban. Foreign forces within the Nato-led coalition and the government in Kabul have alleged that Pakistan is not being tough enough on the opposition fighters. Pakistan's new government entered peace talks with Taliban loyalists shortly after allies of Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president, were beaten in recent elections.

Via Al Jazeera.


Comment:

This is bad. It's too early to know for sure what happened, but I suspect that the attack was indeed coordinated. I could see the Afghan military carrying out a mission in disputed territory, but the US has a little more common sense than that. I would be very surprised if we hadn't alerted the Pakistani government before, or at the very least during, the operation.

So what does that leave us? An error in communication on the Pakistanis' part? I sure hope so, because if they are intentionally trying to create an international incident, there's going to be serious trouble, for everyone involved.

Iraqis rally over US security deal

Tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia have taken to the streets of Baghdad and other cities to protest against a long-term security deal with the US. The rallies after Friday prayers follow a call by Muqtada al-Sadr for weekly protests against the deal that could lead to more US troops and a long-term US presence.

Washington wants the Iraqi government to provide a legal framework for US troops to remain in Iraq beyond the expiration of a UN mandate in December. Officials from the administration of George Bush, the US president, told Al Jazeera they expect to finalise the deal by the end of July.

A statement from al-Sadr's office called the negotiations "a project of humiliation for the Iraqi people".

Sheikh Salah Obaidi, a spokesman for al-Sadr's bloc in parliament, said the call for protests is not a "threat" to the Iraqi government, but a "warning". Al-Sadr, a Shia leader who has the backing of the al-Mahdi Army militia, called for the weekly protests on Tuesday and warned the government against signing the agreement, saying "it is against the interests of the Iraqi people".

Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, another leading Shia figure, spoke out against the agreement, saying it would violate Iraq's sovereignty.

Last week, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most revered Shia cleric, also reportedly expressed his anger, saying he would not permit the Iraqi government to sign a deal with "US occupiers" as long as he lived.

Via Al Jezeera.


Comment:

Why is the Bush administration so averse to victory? Once we finally reduce al-Qaeda in Iraq to utter insignificance — and I would be absolutely flabbergasted if that still had not happened by the time the mandate expires in December — our job will be complete. We will be able to withdraw; when we do so, the attacks against our troops will obviously stop, and Iraq will have become as stable as can reasonably be expected for a country in the Middle East. If, however, we do make this deal, then the current fragile peace that exists between the government and the Shia (and, most likely, the Sunni as well) will be broken. If we make the deal, we will have needed to make it; if we do not make it, we will not have needed to make it.

We must withdraw, not only for Iraq, but for us as well. I have calculated that by freeing up all of the troops who are currently deployed in Iraq, and allowing them sufficient time between deployments, we would be able to triple, if not outright quadruple, the size of the Coalition forces in Afghanistan. President Obama will then be able to show Bush what a real surge looks like.